In the state-by-state discussion so far this general election season, most of the talk has been about the states Donald Trump could win—Pennsylvania, maybe, with at least a 50/50 shot at Ohio and Florida. But there’s one strange anomaly that goes the other way, and it’s right in the heart of the Republican southeast. Georgia, a state that hasn’t gone blue since 1992, and which actually went to George Wallace in 1968, seems to be vaguely blue-ish.
According to 538, Hillary Clinton has a 51 percent chance to take Georgia. The projection relies on 12 polls; two ties, five for Clinton, and five for Trump. The three most recent polls, though, all point to Clinton, with the latest by JMC enterprises showing her with a seven-point lead.
Her lead is a bit of a puzzle. She had tremendous support from the black population in the primaries, but so did Obama in 2008 and 2012, and he never topped 47 percent in either election. It may be that the northern influx into Atlanta has tipped the balance slightly, but it’s hard to imagine the demographic change has been that drastic since 2012. The Washington Post posits that lower-than-usual Republican support may hurt Trump, and the fact that the voting population is less white than ever before.
It may be that the state will rally back to the conservative side when November comes, but for now, a very strange result is in play.